Descriptive decision support, not a forecast and not an official source. Real public stations shows agency-published locations and county zone results. Terrain impacts are modeled screens. Synthetic exercise contains a separate fictional network, with no real station locations or verified pipes. Follow the National Weather Service and local emergency management. In an emergency, call 911.

Coastal Water Resilience

Coastal hazard context at NOAA gauge 8726520 (St. Petersburg, FL), an official public lift-station register, USGS terrain screening and explicit projected-impact scenarios. The ten-dimension planning framework adapts contamination-resilient CRT research into analytical mitigations and public/operator actions. Real public data and the separate fictional calibration network keep distinct labels and limits.
Feeds refresh every 6 minutes.
Real public data first. Explore the official station map, public-data impact screening, or response checklist. The fictional pipe network is available under Synthetic exercise.

Gauge now

MEASURED · NOAA CO-OPS 8726520MODELED · station count
St. Petersburg, Tampa Bay · water level and tide prediction, ft above MLLW
loading water level and tide predictions

OFS forecast

MODELED · NOAA OFS forecastMODELED · stations screened
Operational Forecast System total water level at the gauge, next 48 h
loading the OFS forecast

NHC systems

MEASURED · NOAA NHC via Esri
Active tropical systems worldwide; Atlantic and East Pacific first, with the closest forecast approach to the gauge
loading active tropical systems

NWS alerts

MEASURED · NWS api.weather.gov
Active watches, warnings and advisories at the gauge point (27.773, -82.640)
loading NWS alerts

Synthetic network

MODELED · synthetic, no real locations
130 synthetic lift stations on a fictional peninsula, colored by exposure at the selected surge level. Select a station to trace its upstream set.
Station table

Surge ladder

MODELED · synthetic countsMEASURED · real network counts
Surge level in ft above MLLW at the gauge. The flood plane is the level minus 1.48 ft (MLLW to NAVD88); a station is exposed when its ground elevation sits at or below the plane.

Ten-metric suite

MODELED · synthetic networkMEASURED · real network, 2026-09-04INTERPRETIVE · mitigations

Public environment and GIS context

MEASURED / MODELED · source-specific

Choose a source to load its public records. Agency inventories, dated sample reports, forecast fields and community observations are distinct. Missing/retired feeds remain explicit; no silent all-clear or synthetic replacement is supplied.


Every earlier context capability and its current input status

Loaded context geometry

MEASURED · public source geometry

Bounded longitude/latitude coordinate plot, no basemap; not a navigation, flood-depth or evacuation-routing product. Source points/lines/polygons remain context, not inferred utility dependencies.

Projected impact

MODELED · planning arithmetic

Automatic mode uses the available future NOAA forecast and official public terrain, then deduplicates source-defined Census geographic context. It screens planning exposure; it does not establish outages or customers losing service.




Automatic mode populates public context using the forecast or your selected scenario level. Public population is geographic context, not utility customers; treatment volume is published throughput context, not a spill.

Using embedded public context.

Optional local scenario overrides

Choose Local scenario overrides above to apply these browser-only assumptions. Automatic mode does not use them.






Population, flow and cost assumptions

Blank inputs stay not assessable. Values entered here are assumptions supplied in this browser; the console does not verify catchments, costs or grant eligibility. No inputs are stored or sent.









No FEMA offset is assumed. Eligibility, credits, insurance and the applicable declaration must be established independently; entered percentages are arithmetic scenarios, not reimbursement promises. FEMA Public Assistance eligibility guidance.

No example population, cost or funding fraction is assumed.

Projected impact screen

MODELED · not a prediction

Datum: the 1.48 ft MLLW-to-NAVD88 offset is specific to NOAA gauge 8726520, tidal epoch 1983–2001, datum table accepted 6 Sep 2022. Applying its plane to all points is a sensitivity test, not a uniform bay-wide flood surface. NHC inundation above ground must not be substituted for MLLW water level.

Interpretation. Terrain at/below a level is not a hydrodynamic flood footprint or a station failure. Wastewater-generation arithmetic is not a forecast spill volume. Population is not measured catchment exposure. Repair allowances are not damage assessments. No illness, casualty, predicted fine or automatic boil-water/evacuation instruction is produced.

Real stations behind the impact screen

MODELED · source terrain comparison

Station IDs, ownership, county classifications and basin labels come from the public register. The water-plane comparison uses dated USGS terrain; it is not equipment inundation or operating status. Select a record to review it on the map.

Official public station register

MEASURED · dated public GIS inventory

The default filter shows City-owned/maintained assets from the City’s public GIS register. The all-records filter also shows privately owned assets that the agency itself publishes; public provenance and ownership are separate attributes. They are separate from the fictional LS-### network. A current/enabled GIS record does not establish that a pump has power, is operating, or is safe to access.


Zoom centers on the selected station.
Streets © OpenStreetMap contributors · Report a map issue · Offline coastline: Natural Earth 5.1.1 (generalized).
ABCDENon Evac (official)Unassigned
Real official public station coordinates, north up. Streets load without an API key; an embedded generalized coastline remains available offline. No pipe connections are inferred. Colors show the official county planning-zone overlay, not current inundation or an active evacuation order. For a real address, use the county Know Your Zone lookup.

Public station evidence

MEASURED · official-source snapshot

What is not supplied. The agency register has no ground elevation; independently sourced USGS raster terrain estimates are identified separately where available. Surveyed equipment heights and verified directed pipe/flow connections are not present. Its real locations and evacuation zones do not support the synthetic surge-exposure counts or a station-failure forecast. The ten-metric response checklist offers separate synthetic and public-terrain scenario datasets. Terrain geometry can support screening proxies; real service weights, physical connections and operational consequences remain not assessable without verified inputs.

Pinellas County official Know Your Zone lookup for a real address · Current official county instructions. An evacuation-zone designation differs from a FEMA flood zone and is not an evacuation order.

Public station register and official zone results

MEASURED · snapshot

Phase

INTERPRETIVE · suggested from NHC
If an Atlantic or East Pacific system's forecast track passes within 300 km of the gauge, its closest-approach forecast hour suggests the phase: up to 24 h → T−24h, up to 48 h → T−48h, up to 72 h → T−72h, otherwise T−120h. With no such system, Pre-season.
waiting for the NHC feed

Live action checklist

MODELED · selected scenarioINTERPRETIVE · actions
Review actions use the same station scope and water-level input as Projected impact. Public-data diagnostics describe terrain and geographic context; they do not establish station failures.
Real public station planning screen. Checks acknowledge review, not completed operations.



Real public diagnostics use the exact selected water level, dated station terrain and source-defined Census footprints. Descriptive comparisons are not graded with synthetic calibration thresholds. Unsupported flow topology stays not assessable. ; real per-station failure/flow diagnostics require verified additional inputs.

Timeline

INTERPRETIVE · planMODELED · dimension status

Each parameter is linked to a decision that belongs at that stage of preparation or recovery. Why now explains that link; the ? button explains the measure and its use at that phase.

T marks an assumed storm-impact time for planning. The hour labels are illustrative review windows, not forecast deadlines. All phases show the same current data and scenario; they do not predict how a parameter changes over time. Follow current official instructions.

Stations behind this plan

MODELED · public terrain screen

Archived calibration findings are retained in the separate historical and synthetic views. Current planning uses the selected public records and their own dates.

Three storms on the ladder

MEASURED · NOAA 8726520, real networkMODELED · synthetic column
Peak water level at the gauge, its anomaly over the tide prediction, the flood plane (peak minus 1.48 ft), and the stations at or below that plane.

The observed side

MEASURED · FDEP, City, press
Helene, released1,431,895 gal
  • 1,020,000 gal from a treatment plant de-energized by surge
  • 407,495 gal from 26 manholes
  • 4,400 gal post-storm
Cause: storm surge. Sources: FDEP Public Notice of Pollution and City disclosures.
Milton, releasedat least 5.9 million gal
Per the City as quoted in the press; no itemized volumes. Causes: wind, about 18 in of rain, and power loss at two plants. The City reported no storm surge.

What the backtest says

INTERPRETIVE
  • Helene's biggest failure was the plant, which is outside a lift-station ladder's scope.
  • The reporting unit is the manhole, so no station-level hit rate is possible from public data.
  • Milton released about four times Helene's sewage volume with zero surge. That is the strongest argument for treating grid power and rainfall inflow as first-class hazards, and against a surge-only console.

How to use the public planning console

INTERPRETIVE · operator guide
  1. Check evidence first. Monitor shows NOAA/NHC/NWS timestamps and failures. A downloaded record is not necessarily a current measurement; unavailable data do not mean safe conditions.
  2. Choose a dataset. Public stations defaults to 82 City-owned/maintained records; all 131 records include other published owners. Register status is not live pump status. Check the source Facility ID and station ID before correlating a record. Unknown county-zone matches stay unknown; planning zones do not establish an active evacuation order.
  3. Define an impact exercise. Projected impact defaults to the real City subset and a usable future NOAA OFS peak. You can instead choose a scenario level while public basin/Census and annual treatment-throughput context stay automatic. Its local gauge conversion and flat terrain plane are screening assumptions, not a flood or outage forecast. The separate fictional network supports reproducible topology exercises.
  4. Supply assumptions explicitly. Automatic population sums unique 2020 Census blocks in source basin footprints associated with screened locations; it does not measure customers, flooded residents or outages. Published annual treatment flow is separate City reference context. Optional local overrides can supply explicit duration, population/generation or repair/funding assumptions; terrain screening does not establish damage, and no reimbursement or outage duration is automatic.
  5. Review the ten dimensions. Response plan shares the exact station scope and water-level input with Projected impact; the latest usable NOAA peak is not rounded to a ladder step. Open its all-ten register, choose the public/local or operator track and review missing-input mitigations as well as scenario criteria. Real flow/topology-dependent metrics remain not assessable. Open the station review to see the actual public IDs driving the screen; descriptive metrics are not scored against synthetic thresholds. Review acknowledgments reset when evidence/scenario changes; they do not mark completed operations.
  6. Use optional public context and share the basis. Load dated environmental/GIS records on demand; failures retain an explicitly labeled last retrieval. Export assumptions/results or print the selected view for review. Only the responsible authority’s current instructions, verified local telemetry and approved SOP establish operational action.

Method

INTERPRETIVE

The console applies the ten-metric diagnostic suite from a contamination-resilient cluster-randomized-trial (CRT) design to a wastewater lift-station network. At a given scenario level the stations at or below a hypothetical flat water plane are one arm (exposed) and the rest are the other (unexposed). This is an exploratory adaptation of CRT geometric diagnostics to planning scenarios, not a validated equivalence between trial contamination bias and wastewater cascade dynamics. Actual pumped-flow propagation requires verified connections and operating telemetry, which this public inventory does not provide.

The suite has three pillars: Statistical Interchangeability (metrics 1 to 3), Topological and Spatial Cohesion (4 to 7) and Contamination Resilience (8 to 10). Each metric has a threshold; when it is crossed, the console shows the sub-optimal condition, an analytical mitigation (how to read the numbers) and an operational mitigation (what to do in the field). The response plan collects the operational mitigations of the sub-optimal metrics into timeline phases.

Live feeds set context only: the gauge reading and the OFS forecast map onto the ladder, and the NHC track suggests a phase. Nothing here predicts which station fails.

How the synthetic network was calibrated

MODELED · computed liveMEASURED · real aggregates

The network is generated in your browser from a fixed seed (mulberry32, seed 20260904), so every visitor sees the same 130 stations. Ground elevations are drawn inside bands whose counts reproduce the real network's surge ladder and storm planes exactly, with a few fixed values pinning the published quantiles. Stations sit on a fictional peninsula in a local kilometer frame (barrier islands and keys, causeways, tidal creeks, an inland ridge): lower stations on islands, shorelines and creek lowlands, higher ones inland. The fictional 15-edge graph, evacuation-zone distribution and criticality flags preserve archived calibration summaries. The predecessor inferred its 15 directional pairs from terrain, rather than verified pumped flow; that geometry is kept only as a synthetic exercise. The three treatment plants are the terminals: each force-main sink links, schematically, to its basin's plant (these links are not counted as edges). The archived calibration contains 130 elevation-linked records. The separate current public register has 131 records, including one with no FACILITYID; the newly retrieved terrain snapshot covers all 131. The fictional 130-station calibration is retained for reproducibility and is not presented as the current public register. The table below is recomputed from the generated network each time the page loads.

Synthetic zone assignments, not an address lookup. The public model intentionally leaves 37 of 130 fictional stations unassigned so its counts match the archived network-level summary. Assigned letters are modeled scenario labels; a missing letter is not a failed live lookup, and a fictional station cannot be resolved against a real evacuation map. For a real property, use Pinellas County’s official Know Your Zone address lookup. An evacuation zone is different from a FEMA flood zone; follow current county instructions.

What is withheld, and why

INTERPRETIVE

No nonpublic facility coordinates or nonpublic per-station data are published. The separate Public stations view contains agency-published asset records from official public GIS, with an ownership filter plus official county zone overlays, with their provenance and limits. Its elevations are independently retrieved USGS raster-terrain estimates with NAVD88 datum and acquisition metadata, not surveyed equipment heights. It contains no operational telemetry or verified flow connections. The synthetic scenario remains unlinked to those official asset IDs; its per-station elevations, zones, topology and criticality are fictional. Archived private-network evidence remains at network-level aggregate only: NOAA gauge readings, storm-level backtest counts, publicly reported sewage volumes, and network-level summaries (counts, shares, the ten metric values). The synthetic IDs (LS-001 to LS-130) and names are neutral and do not correspond to real facilities.

Data sources

MEASURED · public feeds
  • NOAA CO-OPS station 8726520, St. Petersburg, Tampa Bay: observed water level (6-minute), tide predictions, and the Operational Forecast System (OFS) water-level guidance, via the CO-OPS Data API.
  • NOAA National Hurricane Center forecast and observed positions, via the Esri Living Atlas Active Hurricanes feature service.
  • National Weather Service API (api.weather.gov), active alerts at the gauge point.
  • Archived calibration summaries (2026-09-04): terrain, scenario zone split and inferred geometric links, retained at network level. These are distinct from the verified 2026-10-23 public register/zone overlay and USGS terrain provenance.
  • NOAA 8726520 datums: local NAVD88−MLLW = 1.48 ft, epoch 1983–2001, accepted 6 Sep 2022. This offset does not establish a uniform bay-wide water surface or convert an NHC above-ground inundation product.
  • Backtest volumes: FDEP Public Notice of Pollution, City of St. Petersburg disclosures, and press reports quoting the City.

All feeds are keyless and fetched by your browser. Nothing is stored or sent anywhere else.

Caveats

INTERPRETIVE
  • Ground elevation is not wet-well or panel elevation. The real calibration uses USGS 3DEP ground elevation, so the ladder tiers are screening flags, not flood lines.
  • The archived topology inferred direction from terrain. Pumped force-main flow does not necessarily follow downhill ground. It is retained as fictional exercise geometry; the real public register has no verified connections.
  • The gauge is one point. Surge varies across a bay; a single gauge reading stands in for the whole network.
  • Surge is one hazard. Grid power and rainfall inflow drove Milton's releases; this console does not model them.
  • Feeds can lag or drop. Every panel shows its feed state and timestamp; a stale or unavailable feed is labeled as such.

Utility hook

MODELED · empty by default

The script defines STATUS_OVERRIDE = {}. A utility could wire it to SCADA: keys are station IDs and values look like {status: 'down' | 'surcharged' | 'ok', note: '...'}. An overridden station is drawn with a cross on the map and its status appears in the station panel. In this public copy it is empty, so nothing is overridden.

Credit

INTERPRETIVE

Built by Patrick Iben. This case study in research engineering and systems architecture adapts the ten-metric diagnostic suite from his contamination-resilient CRT design (preprint, doi:10.5281/zenodo.23486177) and uses directed source/sink topology accounting informed by his directed-contagion research. The directed component is source/sink accounting, not a port of that paper's VAR/FEVD estimation. Live NOAA/NHC/NWS information, archived network-level aggregates, computations on the synthetic public network, and interpretive guidance are labeled separately. The private console and response plan this public version generalizes were built for a Gulf-coast city's wastewater network.